Time Series Analysis of Maternal Mortality: A Case Study of Bindura Provincial Hospital, Zimbabwe · Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Author: Chisoni, Cynthia
Title: Time Series Analysis of Maternal Mortality: A Case Study of Bindura Provincial Hospital, Zimbabwe
Abstract: This study’s main thrust was on the time series analysis of maternal mortality at Bindura
Provincial Hospital from period of year 2010 to year 2020 with the aim of building the best fit
time series model to forecast maternal mortality for the next 5 years. The researcher collected
secondary data from Bindura Provincial Hospital, Health Information Department. The data
provided was for the total live births and maternal mortality recorded at the hospital from the
year 2010 to year 2020. The researcher employed the descriptive research design, using the
Box- Jerkins Test in building the model. Data was analysed using EViews 12 and ARIMA (1,
1, 1) came out to be the best fit time series model to forecast the yearly maternal mortality for
the next 5 years. The best model was ascertained by comparing the various model selection
criterion and the diagnostic tests for various models and the Akaike Information Criterion with
the least value was selected. The forecasting results indicate that the Bindura Provincial
Hospital needs to adopt the forecasting method to forecast their data. The observed results
showed a decreasing trend, and the forecasted data displayed a constant trend with slight
changes in overall decreasing slope for preceding five years. Bindura Provincial Hospital
Officials need to adapt technologically advanced methods of data storage and do away with
paperwork to reduce data losses. Furthermore, researchers should consider carrying out a
qualitative research design using key information through interviews with stakeholders, staff
members that seek to answer the reasons behind the experienced trend.
Date: 2022
Publisher: BUSE
Keywords: Time Series Analysis; Maternal Mortality
Supervisor: Miss PAGAN’A

Item sets: Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Media: Maths & Statistics Chisoni C..pdf