Modelling and Forecasting Zimbabwe’s Covid 19 Confirmed Cases Using Time Series Analysis
- Author
- Gwenhure, Andy
- Title
- Modelling and Forecasting Zimbabwe’s Covid 19 Confirmed Cases Using Time Series Analysis
- Abstract
-
The aim of this study is to forecast the Number of COVID-19 confirmed cases using SARIMA models from (2020 - 2023).The researcher focused on time series analysis of COVID-19 data with the main goal of assessing the trends, building a SARIMA model that will be used to forecast the Number of COVID-19 for the month of March 2023 to October 2023. The study applied the necessary descriptive research design and used the Box-Jenkins methodology in building Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA models. The R-Software was used to perform data analysis and (ARIMA) (0. 1. 1) (0. 1. 0) (12) model was implemented to predict monthly indexes for 8 points. The trend of Covid-19 cases in Zimbabwe up until now has been fluctuating. The number of cases has been increasing and decreasing, depending on various factors such as the public’s adherence to safety guidelines, availability of vaccines, and the effectiveness of the government’s mitigation strategies.
- Date
- 2023
- Publisher
- BUSE
- Keywords
- Modelling and Forecasting
- Supervisor
- Mr. Mukonoweshuro
- Item sets
- Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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