Decision Making Modelling for Covid-19 Cases Using Time Series Models the Case of Bindura Provincial Hospital
- Author
- Mupaga, Mylord
- Title
- Decision Making Modelling for Covid-19 Cases Using Time Series Models the Case of Bindura Provincial Hospital
- Abstract
- Modelling of communicable diseases is vital to the Public Health Department. COVID 19 is an infectious disease that needs forecasting in order to see the pattern of the epidemic at particular periods. Frequent outbreaks are a serious problem being faced by Health Authorities. It is therefore the aim of the study to come up with a statistical model for COVID-19 situation in Bindura. Data from Bindura district hospital was used to fit the SES model. It looked at exploratory data analysis of the COVID19 patterns for Bindura over the study period (March 20, 2020 up to March 10, 2023), to fit appropriate forecasting model to the daily cases in Bindura COVID19 data and to predict the future COVID 19 cases using the identified SES model. There is a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases around November, December in 2021 and 2022. The Ministry of Health may advice the general public to adhere to some preventive measures so as to reduce the rate of spread of the disease. These preventive measures may be enforced through a strictly monitored lockdown and discourage large crowd gatherings. Virtual meetings and lessons should replace face to face meetings and lessons so as to reduce direct contact from person to person.
- Date
- 2023
- Publisher
- BUSE
- Keywords
- Decision Making Modelling
- Supervisor
- Dr. Mapuwei
- Item sets
- Department of Statistics and Mathematics
