A study on coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination response in high-density suburbs. A case study of ward 8 Aerodrome, Bindura
- Author
- Chakanyuka Bibian P
- Title
- A study on coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination response in high-density suburbs. A case study of ward 8 Aerodrome, Bindura
- Abstract
- A coronavirus disease detected in December 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China triggered exponential global infections with a death toll of millions within a few months. COVID-19 ravaged the developed countries with the best health delivery systems and triggered a global public health emergency that culminated into total lockdown with travel restrictions, economic meltdown, social closure and health sector collapse collectively resulting in global economic losses of billions of US dollars. Stern disaster response actions included total lockdown, social isolation, and distancing as well as sporadic medical research for drugs which facilitated treatment and vaccinations adopted including in Zimbabwe. Therefore, to assess such COVID-19 vaccination response, a descriptive survey of Aerodrome Ward 8, Bindura for the period 2021 -2023 was conducted. Field observations and three purposively sampled key informant interviews were held with health at a local clinic while thirty questionnaires were administered to randomly selected community members. Secondary data comprising monthly vaccination data were obtained from the same local clinic. Machine learning (ML) time series regression and a time series decomposition (into a trend, seasonality, residual) analysis using quantitative vaccination data were implemented in R-Project (4.3.3) software. Results of the ML linear regression model (y = -0.2472x + 11323) show a significant monthly decline in COVID-19 vaccinations (p < 0.05) with time confirmed with a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.7362). The subsequent ML time series decomposition clearly shows seasonality with three features, a trend characterized by an initial high vaccination response in 2021, gradually declining in 2022 to reach a low in 2023 while residuals were randomly distributed. COVID-19 restricted economic, social, and religious activities hence impacting the welfare of the Aerodrome community. Young adults also reacted positively to vaccination since they were desperate to get back to their regular jobs. But over time, as more people became vaccinated and the number of COVID-19 cases dropped thus showing that awareness campaigns were effective and the vaccination successful. This study has demonstrated how ML time series analyses may be used to monitor and forecast vaccination patterns in a vaccination facility, as well as to efficiently display trends in similar pandemic situations for preparedness and response actions. This study recommends awareness campaigns as well as improving access to vaccines for future disaster management.
- Date
- May 2024
- Publisher
- BUSE
- Keywords
- vaccine response in urban responsze
- Supervisor
- Mr E Pedzisai
- Item sets
- Department of Disaster Risk Reduction
