Reported Cases Of Abortion At Makumbe District Hospital, Zimbabwe: A Time Series Analysis Of Age-Specific Trends And Arima Modeling To Predict Future Patterns.
- Author
- Tinotenda Meza
- Title
- Reported Cases Of Abortion At Makumbe District Hospital, Zimbabwe: A Time Series Analysis Of Age-Specific Trends And Arima Modeling To Predict Future Patterns.
- Abstract
- Abortion is regarded as a significant public concern in Zimbabwe, with many cases occurring among young women. Understanding age-specific trends and predicting future patterns is crucial for effective intervention and resource allocation. We analyzed retrospective data on reported abortion cases from 2013 to 2023, stratified by age group 15-24 years and 25 years and above. Time series analysis and ARIMA modeling were performed using R Studio. The analysis revealed significant age-specific trends, with a seasonal increase in abortion cases for both young woman (15-24 years) and older woman (25 years and above).While both age groups showed an increase in abortion cases, the young woman’s group had the highest and most pronounced pattern. The ARIMA model predicted continued increase in abortions cases among all ages which were under study. This study highlights the need for target interventions and resource allocation to address the growing trend of abortion cases among young women in Zimbabwe. The ARIMA model provides a valuable to for predicting future patterns and informing public health policy.
- Date
- June 2024
- Publisher
- BUSE
- Keywords
- Abortion
- Cases
- Hospital
- Supervisor
- Mr. D. Kanjodo
