A Time Series Analysis Of Infant Mortality Rate. A Case Study Of Zimbabwe.

Author

Pauline Munzwembiri

Title

A Time Series Analysis Of Infant Mortality Rate. A Case Study Of Zimbabwe.

Abstract

This study focused on time series analysis of infant mortality rate in Zimbabwe from
1990 to 2022. In order to fulfil objectives of this study, ARIMA modes were developed
based on annual infant mortality data from 1990 to 2015(training set) and forecasts
from 2016 to 2022 were deduced from the ARIMA output with the actual data from
2016 to 2022(testing set). The study applied ARIMA (1,1,0) model in forecasting
infant mortality rate using performance evaluation techniques such as RMSE,
Symmetric MAPE, AIC, and BIC. Results of this study shows ARIMA model as a best
fit, since it comes out with lowest error values and it mimics the actual values of
infant mortality rate. Based on the findings, trends for its decline include
improvement of sanitation, and especially access to safe drinking water which would
dramatically help in the decrease of high infant mortality fatal disease.

Date

June 2024

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

Infant Mortality Rate

Time Series Analysis,

ARIMA Model,

Supervisor

Ms. J. PAGAN `A