Climate variability impact on agriculture production: empirical evidence from SADC region · Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Author: Mazengera, Grant M.
Title: Climate variability impact on agriculture production: empirical evidence from SADC region
Abstract: This dissertation investigates the effects of climate change on agricultural output within the SADC region. Utilizing annual panel data from 14 member states (2004-2022) and incorporating factors like rainfall, temperature, labor, government expenditure, and inflation, a Random Effects Model (REM) analysis is employed. The research reveals a positive and statistically significant relationship between precipitation and agricultural productivity, with an optimal level identified at 14.75mm of rainfall. Conversely, temperature exhibits an insignificant negative effect. These findings highlight the urgency of addressing climate change's agricultural impacts in the SADC region. Projections indicate a potential 20% reduction in growing seasons by mid-century, leading to a 40% decline in cereal yields and decreased livestock fodder availability. To bolster agricultural resilience, the dissertation recommends several strategies:
• Implementing climate-resilient agricultural practices
• Developing robust climate information systems
• Strengthening research capacity and institutional frameworks
• Enacting climate-sensitive agricultural policies
• Fostering regional and international cooperation
• Expanding extension services to reach more farmers
• Enhancing data collection and monitoring systems
These recommendations provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in the SADC region. By implementing these strategies, the long-term sustainability and resilience of the agricultural sector in the face of climate change can be secured.
Date: June 2024
Publisher: BUSE
Keywords: Climate variability; Agriculture production
Supervisor: Mr Kairiza

Item sets: Department of Economics

Media: MAZENGERA GRANT MUNASHE