Assessing the impact of past inflation rates and project durations on future bill of quantities (BOQ) demand levels
- Author
- Ngaribvume, Etppa S.
- Title
- Assessing the impact of past inflation rates and project durations on future bill of quantities (BOQ) demand levels
- Abstract
- This study assessed the impact of inflation rate and project duration on Bill of quantities (BOQ) demand within Zimbabwe’s construction sector. It applied the Vector auto-regression (VAR) and Linear regression (LR) models to evaluate the causal and predictive relationships between the variables using time series data. The aim of the study was to identify the accurate model when it comes to forecasting BOQ demand and understanding the relative influence of inflation on project durations in a macro economically changing environment. Model performance was assessed through the mean absolute error (MAE) and the Mean squared error (MSE) and it was revealed from the analysis that linear regression model outperformed the Vector auto regression model due to its small MAE and MSE values. The validity was also assessed through the diagnostic tests, including the Jerque-Bera, Portmanteau and Breusch-Pagan. The inflation rate showed a statistically strong positive impact on BOQ demand whilst the project duration variable showed a weak and less consistent impact on BOQ demand. The other assumptions were met except the auto-correlation which might have been caused by omitted variables or consistent macroeconomic changes widespread in Zimbabwe's construction environment.
- Date
- June 2025
- Publisher
- BUSE
- Keywords
- Bill of Quantities
- Past Inflation Rates
- Supervisor
- Mr. Basira
- Media
-
Ngaribvume, Etppa S..pdf