Ecological Niche Modelling of Colophospermum Mopane in Sub Saharan Africa

Author

Manjoro, Montfort

Title

Ecological Niche Modelling of Colophospermum Mopane in Sub Saharan Africa

Abstract

The distribution and assemblage of species are shifting as a result of the worldwide environmental issue of climate change. Climate change model-based species distribution prediction is a crucial tool for guiding biodiversity protection. The goal of this study was to determine how climate change affects C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach in the R programming language was used to simulate the distribution of C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The range of the species was simulated using 1420 occurrence reports and 19 bioclimatic variables. Distributions for the years 2050 and 2070 were anticipated using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP_8.5 and RCP_2.6. The range of C. mopane was expected to grow, and there was a higher than 0.2 chance that it will be found outside of its current range. Future ecological niche models for C. mopane under the two climatic scenarios showed significant changes in the current suitability. All potential possibilities showed appreciable range expansion, indicating that climate change significantly affects the survival of C. mopane and ultimately results in more biodiversity. In contrast to many other species, the range of C. mopane is one of the few examples of a species that, based on our findings, is projected to persist under challenging climatic conditions, especially under the extreme scenario (RCP_8.5). In order to determine the size of C. mopane's range, further field research is required. The study's estimated suitability zones can be used to evaluate the regional conservation status of mopane species. One recommendation for the preservation of the species is in-situ conservation.
The distribution and assemblage of species are shifting as a result of the worldwide environmental issue of climate change. Climate change model-based species distribution prediction is a crucial tool for guiding biodiversity protection. The goal of this study was to determine how climate change affects C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach in the R programming language was used to simulate the distribution of C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The range of the species was simulated using 1420 occurrence reports and 19 bioclimatic variables. Distributions for the years 2050 and 2070 were anticipated using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP_8.5 and RCP_2.6. The range of C. mopane was expected to grow, and there was a higher than 0.2 chance that it will be found outside of its current range. Future ecological niche models for C. mopane under the two climatic scenarios showed significant changes in the current suitability. All potential possibilities showed appreciable range expansion, indicating that climate change significantly affects the survival of C. mopane and ultimately results in more biodiversity. In contrast to many other species, the range of C. mopane is one of the few examples of a species that, based on our findings, is projected to persist under challenging climatic conditions, especially under the extreme scenario (RCP_8.5). In order to determine the size of C. mopane's range, further field research is required. The study's estimated suitability zones can be used to evaluate the regional conservation status of mopane species. One recommendation for the preservation of the species is in-situ conservation.
The distribution and assemblage of species are shifting as a result of the worldwide environmental issue of climate change. Climate change model-based species distribution prediction is a crucial tool for guiding biodiversity protection. The goal of this study was to determine how climate change affects C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach in the R programming language was used to simulate the distribution of C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The range of the species was simulated using 1420 occurrence reports and 19 bioclimatic variables. Distributions for the years 2050 and 2070 were anticipated using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP_8.5 and RCP_2.6. The range of C. mopane was expected to grow, and there was a higher than 0.2 chance that it will be found outside of its current range. Future ecological niche models for C. mopane under the two climatic scenarios showed significant changes in the current suitability. All potential possibilities showed appreciable range expansion, indicating that climate change significantly affects the survival of C. mopane and ultimately results in more biodiversity. In contrast to many other species, the range of C. mopane is one of the few examples of a species that, based on our findings, is projected to persist under challenging climatic conditions, especially under the extreme scenario (RCP_8.5). In order to determine the size of C. mopane's range, further field research is required. The study's estimated suitability zones can be used to evaluate the regional conservation status of mopane species. One recommendation for the preservation of the species is in-situ conservation.
The distribution and assemblage of species are shifting as a result of the worldwide environmental issue of climate change. Climate change model-based species distribution prediction is a crucial tool for guiding biodiversity protection. The goal of this study was to determine how climate change affects C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach in the R programming language was used to simulate the distribution of C. mopane in sub-Saharan Africa. The range of the species was simulated using 1420 occurrence reports and 19 bioclimatic variables. Distributions for the years 2050 and 2070 were anticipated using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP_8.5 and RCP_2.6. The range of C. mopane was expected to grow, and there was a higher than 0.2 chance that it will be found outside of its current range. Future ecological niche models for C. mopane under the two climatic scenarios showed significant changes in the current suitability. All potential possibilities showed appreciable range expansion, indicating that climate change significantly affects the survival of C. mopane and ultimately results in more biodiversity. In contrast to many other species, the range of C. mopane is one of the few examples of a species that, based on our findings, is projected to persist under challenging climatic conditions, especially under the extreme scenario (RCP_8.5). In order to determine the size of C. mopane's range, further field research is required. The study's estimated suitability zones can be used to evaluate the regional conservation status of mopane species. One recommendation for the preservation of the species is in-situ conservation.

Date

2022

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

Ecological Niche Modelling

Colophospermum Mopane

Sub Saharan Africa

Supervisor

Prof Jimu