Impact of Climate Change on the Commercial Suitability of the Drought-Tolerant Eucalyptus Camaldulensis in Sub-Saharan Africa · Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Author

Nyabote, Reward

Title

Impact of Climate Change on the Commercial Suitability of the Drought-Tolerant Eucalyptus Camaldulensis in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

In the absence of widespread cooperation and participation in an appropriate and effective systematic observation, mitigation, and adaptation measures, the world is currently experiencing an unprecedented climate change phenomenon that is likely to result in a crisis of species survival, distribution, and socioeconomic development. The study of the research aimed at determining climate change impact on the commercial suitability of the drought-tolerant Eucalyptus camaldulensis in Sub-Saharan Africa. The distribution of E. camaldulensis in Sub-Saharan Africa was modelled using the maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) technique in R software version 4.2.2 after data of species occurrence was retrieved from GBIF database (http://gbif.org). Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate tool models, namely RCP 8.5 model and RCP 2.6 model, project the distribution of the species ecology to the years 2050 and 2070. Current predicted suitability portrayed that the geographical habitats for E. camaldulensis are in line with the species' present range, they are significantly correlated with a range of 0.4 and above in predicted suitability areas. The ecological niche models for E. camaldulensis under 2 climatic scenarios, predicted significant changes in the future predicted suitability. All scenarios highlighted a wide range of shrink, proving that climate change have an impact on the survival of E. camaldulensis though it is a drought tolerant species, hence loss of biodiversity in near future. According to the results, it is expected that difficult climatic circumstances will endanger extinction since the distribution of the species is likely to be severely affected by climate change under (RCP 8.5) model scenario. It is recommended that suitability areas that are predicted in this research can help in planning and assessing the suitable adaptation measures to be put in place, such as encouraging the use of drought tolerant varieties, to lessen the possible negative climate change effects on E. camaldulensis.

Date

2023

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

Climate Change

Eucalyptus Camaldulensis

Supervisor

N/A