Ecological niche modelling for Indigofera Tinctoria L

Author

Kapumha, Aurthur

Title

Ecological niche modelling for Indigofera Tinctoria L

Abstract

The prediction of the distribution of different species using climate change models has become an important tool for guiding biodiversity conservation. Climate change has become a global environmental issue altering the distribution and assemblage of species worldwide. This study aimed to determine impacts in changing of climate on I tinctoria L, assessing some places in Zimbabwe and also in the sub Saharan Africa. R Studio software was used to calibrate and project the distribution of I tinctoria L, in sub Saharan Africa. A total of 1418 occurrence records, 19 bio-climatic variables in modelling species’ occurrences were used. Distributions were forecasted on years 2050 to 2070 being altered by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), that is RCP-8.5 and RCP-2.6. Present projections showed the probability of occurrence outside the area of current occurrence was >0.2. The future ecological niche models for I tinctoria L, of the 2 climatic scenarios, predicted significant changes in the current suitability.There was significant range extension in every scenario, demonstrating that climate change has a significant impact on the survival of I tinctoria L and ultimately increases biodiversity. Unlike many species whose distributions are likely to be seriously affected by climate change, predicted suitability areas in this study can aid in assessing the conservation status of plant species at a regional scale, hence a follow up in the field should be done to determine range size of I tinctoria L.

Date

2023

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

Climate change

Ecological niche modelling

Indigofera Tinctoria L

Supervisor

N/A