Time series analysis for nickel production. A case study for Trojan Nickel Mine

Author

Sean Mdala

Title

Time series analysis for nickel production. A case study for Trojan Nickel Mine

Abstract

The Trojan mining operation is crucial to the national economy as a major nickel producer, but
recent trends show declining yields. To address this, a comprehensive study conducted a time
series analysis of nickel production from April 2013 to March 2023, using ARIMA models to
predict production from April 2023 to January 2024. The ARIMA model projected that nickel
production would reach 496.87 tons by January 2024. Using the Box-Jenkins approach and R
software, the study validated the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model. Predictions showed an initial increase
in production from April to July 2023, followed by stabilization with slight fluctuations until
January 2024. Boosting nickel production depends on timely resource provision, professional
training, effective mine management, and supportive government policies. Future research should
consider advanced data analytics methods, such as machine learning and neural networks, for more
precise predictions.

Date

June 2024

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

ARIMA

Forecast,

Zimbabwe

Nickel Production

Supervisor

Dr. M. Magodora