Time series analysis for nickel production. A case study for Trojan Nickel Mine

Author

Sean Mdala

Title

Time series analysis for nickel production. A case study for Trojan Nickel Mine

Abstract

The Trojan mining operation is crucial to the national economy as a major nickel producer, but recent trends show declining yields. To address this, a comprehensive study conducted a time series analysis of nickel production from April 2013 to March 2023, using ARIMA models to predict production from April 2023 to January 2024. The ARIMA model projected that nickel production would reach 496.87 tons by January 2024. Using the Box-Jenkins approach and R software, the study validated the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model. Predictions showed an initial increase in production from April to July 2023, followed by stabilization with slight fluctuations until January 2024. Boosting nickel production depends on timely resource provision, professional training, effective mine management, and supportive government policies. Future research should consider advanced data analytics methods, such as machine learning and neural networks, for more precise predictions.

Date

June 2024

Publisher

BUSE

Keywords

ARIMA

Forecast,

Zimbabwe

Nickel Production

Supervisor

Dr. M. Magodora