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Author
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Zimbizi, Chantel
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Title
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Impact of climate change on habitat suitability and distribution of Adansonia digitata, Tamarindus indica and Sclerocayra Birrea in Zimbabwe.
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Abstract
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This study explores the impact of climate change on the distribution and habitat suitability of three key indigenous fruit tree species found in the low veld of Zimbabwe which are Adansonia digitata(baobab), Sclerocarya birrea (marula), and Tamarindus indica (tamarind) as climate change has become an escalating environmental concern that significantly influences species distribution. The target species are ecologically, culturally, and economically significant to rural communities, yet their survival is increasingly threatened by shifting climatic conditions, land-use changes, and unsustainable harvesting methods. These tree species are currently classified as 'Least Concern' according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Endangered Species, as they are not significantly threatened by habitat degradation or population decline, among others, however, the potential impacts of changing climate on this species remain unaccounted for and require further study. Acquiring knowledge on and understanding how species inhabit their current locations and predicting their future location under various climatic scenarios is a very important part of biodiversity conservation Using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques in MaxEnt and environmental variables under current and projected climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 for 2050-2070 and 20.80), this research assesses both current habitat suitability and potential future shifts in distribution. Occurrence data were sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), filtered for spatial relevance and processed alongside bioclimatic variables. Results show species-specific responses to climate change. S. birrea and T. indica are projected to expand their suitable ranges, suggesting high ecological plasticity and potential resilience to warming climates. Conversely, A. digitata is expected to lose suitability in its traditional low-veld habitats and shift toward central watershed areas, indicating potential vulnerability to extreme temperature and moisture stress. These findings align with existing literature identifying A. digitata as susceptible to regeneration failures under prolonged drought conditions. The study further reveals that natural regeneration of these species is constrained by climatic stress, habitat degradation, limited seed dispersal, and overharvesting driven by commercialization. While the indigenous fruit value chain is expanding, particularly for baobab, marula, and masawu the lack of structured cultivation, domestication strategies, and policy frameworks exacerbates species decline. The research concludes that climate change will not affect all species uniformly. Adaptation strategies are urgently required for effective conservation of indigenous fruit trees.
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Date
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June 2025
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Publisher
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BUSE
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Keywords
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Climate change
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Fruit tree species
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Supervisor
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Prof Jimu
